During a tasting this past week, a sales rep said something to me that made me smile: “There’s never been a better time to be a whiskey drinker.”
I asked him why.
“Because there’s never been this many whiskey brands on the market at the same time,” he replied.
I laughed and said: “So you must think this is the best time to buy a home, too?”
He was caught off guard and replied: “Homes are way too expensive right now. I think it’s the worst time to buy a house.”
“Yes, but there are so many on the market to choose from! Isn’t that the criteria?” I answered with a twinkle in my eye.
Without a doubt, this is the WORST time to be a whiskey drinker in the last twenty years. It’s also the worst time to be a Tequila drinker, and the worst time to buy a house. Quality is low; prices are high.
I said it. I stand by it.
We’re at the tail end of a bust cycle that is getting ready to pop. This happens every few decades. The glut that follows the bust is what leads to the subsequent renaissance. Because whiskey takes time to mature, it also takes time for stocks to build back up once the latest fad fizzles out.
We call them cycles in the booze business.
And it’s not just the case with whiskey. Cigars are also matured for greater sophistication, and—like whiskey—aged tobacco happens to tastes better.
To quote Richard Hacker’s The Ultimate Cigar Book:
During less demanding years when cigar consumption was languishing, companies like Consolidated Cigar Corporation, General Cigar, and A. Fuente used to have huge stores of tobacco that went back as far as the 1980s. Unfortunately, the overwhelming demand for cigars during the boom years of the 1990s depleted this decades-old reserves supply of vintage tobaccos. With the end of the boom followed by a dip in cigar consumption caused by the Great Recession, these stores of aged tobaccos have been allowed to build up again. Today, with a notable increase in cigar consumption, supplies of aged tobaccos are back, which bodes well for the future of super premium cigars.
See how this works with these products?
When no one cares, quality is high. When everyone cares, quality goes down.
Contrary to popular culture, I didn’t get into whiskey because I’m a whiskey nerd at heart. I got into whiskey because—back in 2006—it was getting interesting.
Why was it interesting?
Because there was all this old whiskey available that had been sitting in warehouses for decades and only a small population of people seemed to really care much or know anything about it.
That didn’t last long, however. As soon as everyone started caring, it became far less interesting.
Why?
Because it became a cash game rather than a hobby.
In 2010, I was selling single casks of 30 year Brora cask strength single malt for $300. Today, Brora sells for as much as $3000.
Much like Hacker talks about the cigar boom of the 1990s, the whiskey boom of the 2010s depleted all the reserve stocks of mature single malt and Bourbon. When I say whiskey is less interesting today, that doesn’t mean I don’t drink it anymore; it just means I stick to basic value bottles that I think still deliver quality.
All of the old whiskey that made whiskey hunting fun is long gone. And if you can find it, it’s way too expensive.
That’s the reason I’m digging deeper into cigars right now. Cigars have been out of fashion since the last big boom, and only over the last few years have they been picking up steam once again. The cycle has come back around, cigars are once again where whiskey was back in 2006.
I’ve had a number of friends in the cigar industry recently tell me: “There’s never been a better time to be a cigar smoker.”
Why?
Because there’s never been this much good, mature, high-quality tobacco on the market at the same time, both because we’re at the start of another quality cycle and because other tobacco-growing countries have had time to improve their growing practices.
If you’re not into cigars, I get it. What I’m saying is: don’t wait another five years to start learning about cigars. By that time, it will probably be too late.
-David Driscoll