When the expectations of your customers exceed the abilities of what you’re able to provide, you’ve got a problem.
Luckily, I don’t think that’s the case for 95% of the people we serve here at Mission, but for those adventurous drinkers who are always hunting the next big thing, I have a feeling 2021 is going to be a very frustrating year.
Here’s the reality of what’s ahead of us:
There are 25% tariffs on anything good coming out of the UK and Europe and it doesn’t appear they’re going away in the immediate future.
Even without the tariffs, most interesting single barrel selections are completely dried up, or they’ve been priced according to demand, so there are no deals whatsoever.
Japanese whiskies will continue to be mostly Scotch that happens to be bottled in Japan, or aged rice distillate disguised as whiskey.
New releases on American whiskey will continue to be scarce and expensive, resulting in higher prices and increased competition.
Great American wineries will continue to be purchased by large investment groups who plan to “refurbish” and the sell the wines for more money.
Tequila production will continue to expand, which means more agave will be processed at a young age, furthering the expansion of diffusers and creating an even bigger shortage of mature agave.
Mezcal will continue to boom and people will act like they care, but never actually buy anything.
But enough good news!
The real issue we’re facing is that our expectations as savvy consumers are beginning to exceed what the current market can actually offer us.
You wanna know why there’s so much division in America, and why a segment of the population is longing to return to the “good old days?” It’s related to this same problem.
There was a time when going to a good college meant you would actually get a good job, rather than a lifetime of student loan debt. Unfortunately for an entire generation, that memo didn’t get out in time.
There was also a time when buying a home was a good investment and you were almost guaranteed to build equity as the years went by. Today, I don’t think that’s the case.
When everyone has a degree and expects to make $100K right out of college, it’s easy for expectations to exceed reality. Just like all those people who show up to look at a home listed for $700K, thinking they’ve found a place they can afford, only to realize they’re about to be outbid by someone willing to pay a million. It’s depressing.
I have dozens of friends who are unsatisfied with their jobs right now, as they grip with the new realities of the COVID economy. Many of them thought the changes in their companies would be temporary, but now they’re coming to terms with the hard truth: their jobs have been permanently altered. When a company earns more in 2020 by spending less on wages, why would it ever go back to doing things the old way?
For whiskey consumers still dreaming of $30 Elmer T. Lee on the shelves, or a $50 bottle of mature, second-growth Bordeaux that’s readily available whenever you need it, I fear their frustration is only going to grow. We’re never going back to that era. It’s over.
We’re in the era of $50 California wine that should be $10, but costs $50 because the price of land in California requires it to cost that much. Then, on top of that, more and more of the best grapes are being purchased by outside entrepreneurs who want to start their own vanity label, buy expensive fruit, and then completely fuck it up. But they put it in a hip, modern-looking bottle and they spin a good tale, so it sells. Or it doesn’t.
We’re in the era of premiumization, where companies are being told they need to make their products more attractive to a higher income bracket. That’s why distilleries, wineries, and breweries are being purchased by multi-national conglomerates and turned into luxury brands on a daily basis. Moving forward, you can expect more and more of the producers you’ve been drinking for years to phase out their bargain labels and replace them with higher-priced options.
Meanwhile, all the bargain brands are quietly being bought up by gigantic companies who will switch the formula over to their own mass-produced, cheaper alternative without 90% of the population batting an eye.
You wanna know why I wrote about Glenfiddich yesterday? Because Glennfiddich is a whisky that still offers a lot fantastic bang for the buck, and I had a great time drinking it with friends. But, make no mistake, I’m painfully aware of how irrelevant that blog post is in the greater scheme of things. As we were finishing up our glasses, I said to my buddy David: “Wouldn’t it be great if everyone just wanted to drink something that tasted good for a great price? It would be so much easier.”
The truth is: our expectations exceed the simple pleasures of Glenfiddich 12 or 15 year old. Yet, ironically, this is where all the value is today; with big brand labels that are still made with integrity. It used to be in the single cask market, where we could find competitive alternatives that had more flavor and more concentration. Today, however, it’s completely flipped.
Even though we’ve been conditioned to think outside the box, today you simply get more value with a mass-produced brand than a boutique label.
Just like you can make more money with a technical degree today than with a PhD.
Just like you’re probably better off renting and putting your savings into a mutual fund to build equity for retirement, rather than spending a million on 900 square feet.
The world is changing quickly. For the sake of your happiness and your sanity, it’s important to keep your expectations in line with those changes.
-David Driscoll