The Mission Booze Blog

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The Bubble Is Bursting

I don’t want to get into all the specifics about why—on multiple levels—this past weekend’s “fight” between Logan Paul and Floyd Mayweather is going to escalate the ruination of society as we know it, but I’ll give you one example that correlates to my industry: influencer RTDs.

You know what’s not happening right now? Young people watching boxing.

Hence, the sport is suffering because it doesn’t speak to the next generation of potential sports fans.

You know what else isn’t happening right now? Young people drinking whiskey. Or wine. Or alcohol, really.

Hence, we’re beginning to see a slowdown in sales as the current drinking populace has pretty much exhausted its capacity for more booze.

You know what it takes to sell a boxing match to young people right now? A YouTube influencer.

You know what it takes to sell booze to young people right now? A YouTube influencer.

We sold countless cases of Happy Dad hard seltzer yesterday, the latest RTD (ready-to-drink) sensation to hit the market, because it’s being backed by the moment’s most pertinent YouTube sensation. It’s the first time I’ve seen this many 20-something year olds in the store—ever.

Meanwhile, sales for whiskey continue to slow as growth for new customers is beginning to stagnate.

So does that mean all your favorite whiskies will soon be easy-to-find and cheap once again?

No, it doesn’t.

What it does mean, however, is that all the guys online who are hoarding bottles and trying to flip them for cash should consider liquidating their liquid ASAP.

A market can only continue to flourish when subsequent generations fuel continued growth with new consumerism.

But that’s not happening with whiskey. Young people in their twenties are not catching the Bourbon bug, and they can no longer afford to buy Scotch.

And there are only so many new bottles that can be sold, over and over again, to the same consumers before they tap out.

As I told someone this past week, the COVID-19 lockdown managed to prolong a relationship that was already on the decline, giving some parties false hope for the future. Hence, a number whiskey companies continued to expand believing the market was still growing.

But it wasn’t growing. It was panic buying.

All I can tell you is this: get ready for some serious price reductions this summer. And get ready for a bunch of people to go out of business.

-David Driscoll