Predictions For The Future

With summer pretty much ruined for the foreseeable future thanks to extreme heat, wildfires, drought, and other climate-induced dangers that seem to be getting worse rather than better, I’ve been thinking nonstop about the future of both our planet and our industry.

Spoiler alert: I’m not optimistic about either.

That being said, my lack of optimism about the wine and spirits industry is based entirely on my position as a professional, rather than a consumer. Things will be fine for those of us who like shopping for booze, but I don’t a see a bright future for independent retailers in particular, or specialty retailers who rely on their product knowledge for their position.

Here’s why:

  • Across the board, the internet has made subject matter experts less and less relevant. Now, with the rise of social media influencers, critics and experts have never been less important. An amateur Instagram account that whores itself out for free samples, and generates 100k+ followers while doing so, is now more important to suppliers than most retail buyers. Why? Because few retailers are actually out there driving sales and doing their own marketing to consumers. As a result, retailers are becoming less important to suppliers and producers. They’re simply the point of sale, nothing more.

  • In addition to the loss of status for retailers, third-party marketing sites like Drizly are moving retailers further and further away from the customer. When you purchase alcohol from one one of these sites, you’re still purchasing from a store like Mission, you just don’t know it. More importantly, the store doesn’t know you either. That means the third-party marketing company controls the relationship with the consumer, which is more valuable than anything. I know small retailers in LA that are 100% dependent on these companies at this point, facilitating sales that they have no control over, losing both consumer awareness and margin in the process.

  • With product selection at an all-time high and no end in sight to the amount of new brands entering the market, customers have never had more selection than right now—which means they’ve never been more discerning, as well as overwhelmed! While alcohol sales continue to grow overall, the amount of sales happening at any one location is thinning out.

  • As more customers begin to treat bottles of alcohol like a one-time only vacation (meaning: “I’ve already been to Paris, so next year I’m going to Greece”), brands have to create new adventures as fast as they can to get repeat business. While it may work for the brand, it’s exhausting the capacities of small retailers who wind up with dozens of specific batches and barrel numbers that don’t sell evenly.

I don’t see consumer interest in whiskey slowing down anytime soon, but I do see consumers narrowing their focus. That means the boutique side of the market is becoming saturated.

I believe that boutique burnout is what led to record sales this year for LVMH, Diageo, Campari, and other huge drinks companies that have grown like Amazon during COVID. As of this morning, Diageo is up 16%, posting sales of $17.7 billion.

Why does that matter?

Find me a small, independent retailer that makes a healthy profit selling Diageo products. With Total Wine, Costco, and other big box stores offering low prices based off volume purchasing and scale, there’s no way they can compete.

That’s not a problem so long as enough consumers are willing to support alternative brands or pay a higher price now and again, but that’s not what’s happening right now.

Fear often leads us back to the familiar. With inflation, COVID, social violence, drought, anxiety over finances, and a general malaise about the workplace from our country’s working class, it’s no wonder the most familiar brands are thriving.

-David Driscoll

Instagram Live Today With Donae Burston

Image from Wine Spectator

Image from Wine Spectator

If you think rosé can’t be masculine, talk to Carmelo Anthony and Michael Strahan, two superstar athletes who are also big fans of Donae Burston’s new La Fête du Rosé from St. Tropez, a clean and refreshing take on the genre that has been generating incredible praise from serious wine drinkers around the globe. 

Donae isn’t just winning over fans with his refreshing take on rosé, he’s inspiring a new generation of drinkers to think beyond stereotypes and the pigeon-holes where the genre is often relegated, incorporating everything from rosé cocktails to rosé and cigar pairings! I’ve had a great time working with him over the last month and a half, and today I’m going to have him tell his story on Instagram over at the @missionliquor page.

Start time is 4 PM!

-David Driscoll

New Ryes > New Bourbons

I was tasting through single barrel selections with a supplier last week, and I mentioned how much more I liked the rye whiskey samples than the Bourbon samples.

“Oh yeah,” he responded in complete agreement; “Yet, we still sell our Bourbon casks ten to one against the rye because Bourbon is Bourbon.”

Talk to any major distiller of both rye and Bourbon, and I promise you the same conversation will occur. Heck, you can see it for yourself during the Instagram Live chat I had with Conor O’Driscoll from Heaven Hill. Which whiskey is he most excited about from his stable? The Pikesville 6 year rye whiskey.

Yet, far more people are after Larceny Barrel Proof and Parker’s Heritage Bourbon.

Whenever there’s a sale disparity like the one currently taking place on the market, where Bourbon sales are heavily outpacing rye—10 to 1, as one supplier put it—it has a serious effect on available quality. Hence, why I’ve recently found four to five serious contenders for single barrel purchases in the rye department, but scarce few in the Bourbon category.

That’s not to say I haven’t been tasting Bourbon single barrels. I taste at least a dozen a week.

It’s to say I’ve been turning them down. Meanwhile, I’ve purchased three different rye single barrels in the last month: one from Beam, one from Stellum, and one from Ry3.

Because rye isn’t nearly as in demand as Bourbon, a number of producers are sitting on barrels with serious age at this point. In the case of the Stellum cask I bought, it’s a marriage of MGP rye whiskey as old as 7 years, married with Kentucky and Tennessee rye whiskies of 9 and 10 years of age, at full proof.

And the quality was simply outstanding! As Toucan Sam used to say: “Follow your nose; it always knows.”

-David Driscoll